A little medical statistics
Originally written by John Webb
tw: fictionalised statistics of disease rates.
———
Today there are many tests that are widely used to detect life-threatening diseases early. How effective are they? Should they be believed?
At a routine checkup, your doctor tells you that there is a simple and inexpensive blood test that can detect a rare but particularly
nasty form of cancer. You agree to have the test done, and the doctor takes a blood sample and sends it off to the pathology laboratory.
Two days later the doctor calls to tell you that the test has come up positive. The good news is that the cancer can be cured since it
has been caught at an early stage. The bad news is that the treatment, though effective, is very expensive and has a number of unpleasant side-effects.
Before agreeing to treatment you need to do a little bit of basic arithmetic.…